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blitz

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gretl version 1.9.12 Current session: 2013-07-07 23:18 ? open “/home/pietro/Università/Ricerca/Scontrini/Seconda tranche/Dati \

esterni/Riassunto_panel.csv"

parsing /home/pietro/Università/Ricerca/Scontrini/Seconda tranche/Dati esterni/Riassunto_panel.csv… using delimiter ','

 longest line: 63 characters
 first field: 'Year'
 seems to be observation label
 number of columns = 10
 number of variables: 9
 number of non-blank lines: 213

scanning for variable names…

 line: Year,Month,V_pic_sup_gr,Prezzi,Deb,Cred,Cit,Blitz,Time,V_dest

scanning for row labels and data…

 the cell for variable 2, obs 1 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 1 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 2 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 2 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 3 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 3 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 4 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 4 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 5 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 5 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 6 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 6 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 7 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 7 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 8 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 8 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 9 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 9 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 10 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 10 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 11 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 11 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 12 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 12 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 45 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 45 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 45 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 46 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 46 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 46 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 47 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 47 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 47 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 48 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 48 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 48 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 49 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 49 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 49 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 50 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 50 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 50 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 51 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 51 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 51 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 52 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 52 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 52 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 53 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 53 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 53 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 54 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 54 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 54 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 55 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 55 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 55 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 56 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 56 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 56 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 57 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 57 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 57 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 58 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 58 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 58 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 59 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 59 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 59 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 60 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 60 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 60 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 61 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 61 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 61 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 62 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 62 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 62 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 63 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 63 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 63 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 64 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 64 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 64 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 2, obs 65 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 65 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 9, obs 65 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 66 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 67 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 68 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 69 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 70 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 71 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 72 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 73 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 74 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 75 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 76 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 77 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 78 is empty: treating as missing value
 the cell for variable 5, obs 79 is empty: treating as missing value
 first row label "2009", last label "2013"

trying to parse row labels as dates…

 2009: probably a year... and just a year
 but the dates are not complete and consistent

variable 6 (Cit): non-numeric values = 212 (100.00 percent) variable 9 (V_dest): non-numeric values = 87 (90.62 percent) allocating string table

 first row label "2009", last label "2013"

trying to parse row labels as dates…

 2009: probably a year... and just a year
 but the dates are not complete and consistent

treating these as undated data

String code table written to /home/pietro/Università/Ricerca/Scontrini/Seconda tranche/Report macro/string_table.txt Listing 10 variables:

0) const           1) Month           2) V_pic_sup_gr    3) Prezzi        
4) Deb             5) Cred            6) Cit             7) Blitz         
8) Time            9) V_dest        

? setobs Cit Time –panel-vars Full data range: 1:01 - 4:53 (n = 212)

? vend_deinfl = V_pic_sup_gr / Prezzi * 105.7 Generated series vend_deinfl (ID 10) ? deb_deinfl = Deb / Prezzi * 105.7 Generated series deb_deinfl (ID 11) ? cred_deinfl = Cred / Prezzi * 105.7 Generated series cred_deinfl (ID 12) ? vend_dest = V_dest / Prezzi * 105.7 Generated series vend_dest (ID 13) ? vend_diff = vend_deinfl - vend_deinfl(-12) Generated series vend_diff (ID 14) ? deb_diff = deb_deinfl - deb_deinfl(-12) Generated series deb_diff (ID 15) ? cred_diff = cred_deinfl - cred_deinfl(-12) Generated series cred_diff (ID 16) ? MI = Cit == 1 Generated series MI (ID 17) ? GE = Cit == 2 Generated series GE (ID 18) ? TO = Cit == 3 Generated series TO (ID 19) ? IT = Cit == 4 Generated series IT (ID 20) ? discrete Time # Non funziona per niente # (“meno due milioni di formiche meno due milioni di cani”) ? ols deb_deinfl const dummify(Cit) Time Blitz

Model 1: Pooled OLS, using 204 observations Included 4 cross-sectional units Time-series length: minimum 45, maximum 53 Dependent variable: deb_deinfl

           coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
--------------------------------------------------------
const       67266.2       59205.2      1.136    0.2573  
DCit_2     −59230.2       61512.8     −0.9629   0.3368  
DCit_3     −44613.3       61512.8     −0.7253   0.4691  
DCit_4     856550         64410.9     13.30     2.97e-29 ***
Time          231.827      1491.02     0.1555   0.8766  
Blitz       59023.4      318596        0.1853   0.8532  

Mean dependent var 235576.2 S.D. dependent var 483973.1 Sum squared resid 1.97e+13 S.E. of regression 315140.9 R-squared 0.586442 Adjusted R-squared 0.575999 F(5, 198) 56.15442 P-value(F) 3.73e-36 Log-likelihood −2869.217 Akaike criterion 5750.433 Schwarz criterion 5770.342 Hannan-Quinn 5758.487 rho −0.294479 Durbin-Watson 2.551251

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 8 (Time)

# In log: ? logdeb = log( deb_deinfl ) Generated series logdeb (ID 24) ? ols logdeb const dummify(Cit) Time Blitz

Model 2: Pooled OLS, using 204 observations Included 4 cross-sectional units Time-series length: minimum 45, maximum 53 Dependent variable: logdeb

           coefficient    std. error   t-ratio     p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const      10.9888        0.148958      73.77     5.66e-146 ***
DCit_2     −1.71082       0.154764     −11.05     1.96e-22  ***
DCit_3     −1.17930       0.154764      −7.620    1.03e-12  ***
DCit_4      2.50984       0.162055      15.49     5.74e-36  ***
Time        0.000404788   0.00375134     0.1079   0.9142   
Blitz       0.809581      0.801573       1.010    0.3137   

Mean dependent var 10.80612 S.D. dependent var 1.760873 Sum squared resid 124.4747 S.E. of regression 0.792881 R-squared 0.802244 Adjusted R-squared 0.797250 F(5, 198) 160.6470 P-value(F) 1.13e-67 Log-likelihood −239.0737 Akaike criterion 490.1473 Schwarz criterion 510.0560 Hannan-Quinn 498.2008 rho −0.219596 Durbin-Watson 2.387912

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 8 (Time)

? smpl –restrict Cit != 2 Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

# In log: ? ols logdeb const dummify(Cit) Time Blitz

Model 3: Pooled OLS, using 151 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length: minimum 45, maximum 53 Dependent variable: logdeb

           coefficient    std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const      10.9739        0.162016     67.73     3.41e-112 ***
DCit_2     −1.17942       0.155297     −7.595    3.39e-12  ***
DCit_3      2.51195       0.162853     15.42     1.86e-32  ***
Time        0.000960575   0.00442891    0.2169   0.8286   
Blitz       0.803350      0.804757      0.9983   0.3198   

Mean dependent var 11.33865 S.D. dependent var 1.698191 Sum squared resid 92.41741 S.E. of regression 0.795610 R-squared 0.786357 Adjusted R-squared 0.780503 F(4, 146) 134.3455 P-value(F) 6.82e-48 Log-likelihood −177.1919 Akaike criterion 364.3838 Schwarz criterion 379.4702 Hannan-Quinn 370.5127 rho −0.227673 Durbin-Watson 2.401576

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 8 (Time)

#smpl –replace –restrict Cit == 1 ? summary logdeb

Summary statistics, using the observations 1:01 - 3:53 for the variable 'logdeb' (151 valid observations)

Mean                         11.339
Median                       11.085
Minimum                      8.1027
Maximum                      14.723
Standard deviation           1.6982
C.V.                        0.14977
Skewness                    0.22478
Ex. kurtosis               -0.82733
5% percentile                8.6651
95% percentile               14.397
Interquartile range          2.6910
Missing obs.                      8
Within s.d.                 0.79312
Between s.d.                 1.8862

#media = $average # Milano: ? risc_deb = 75105 Generated scalar risc_deb = 75105 # Torino: ? risc_deb_TO = 58515 Generated scalar risc_deb_TO = 58515 ? risc_deb_GE = 26918 Generated scalar risc_deb_GE = 26918 ? smpl –full Full data range: 1:01 - 4:53 (n = 212)

? deb_risc = deb_deinfl Generated series deb_risc (ID 25) ? smpl –replace –restrict Cit == 3 Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? deb_risc = deb_risc / 58515 * 75105 Replaced series deb_risc (ID 25) ? smpl –replace –restrict Cit == 2 Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? deb_risc = deb_risc / 26918 * 75105 Replaced series deb_risc (ID 25) ? smpl –replace –restrict Cit == 4 Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? deb_risc = deb_risc / 929150 * 75105 Replaced series deb_risc (ID 25) #smpl –replace –restrict Cit != 2 # ATTENZIONE ATTENZIONE ATTENZIONE ATTENZIONE alla presenza dell'Italia ? smpl –replace –restrict Cit != 4 Full data range: 1:01 - 4:53 (n = 212) Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? quelfeb = time == 38 Generated series quelfeb (ID 27) #ols deb_risc const dummify(Cit) dummify(Time) Blitz # Equazione buona: ? ols deb_risc const TO GE dummify(Month) quelfeb Blitz

Model 4: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const         46828.4       5120.97      9.144    5.47e-16 ***
TO           −35857.7       3553.78    −10.09     2.07e-18 ***
GE           −33081.2       3553.78     −9.309    2.09e-16 ***
DMonth_2      −3058.75      7034.77     −0.4348   0.6644  
DMonth_3      28152.3       6632.44      4.245    3.92e-05 ***
DMonth_4       5151.07      6632.44      0.7766   0.4386  
DMonth_5      75502.4       6632.44     11.38     8.90e-22 ***
DMonth_6       4684.98      7034.77      0.6660   0.5065  
DMonth_7      16453.3       7034.77      2.339    0.0207   **
DMonth_8      79414.9       7034.77     11.29     1.57e-21 ***
DMonth_9      −8184.66      7034.77     −1.163    0.2466  
DMonth_10     −1293.87      7034.77     −0.1839   0.8543  
DMonth_11     31007.3       7034.77      4.408    2.04e-05 ***
DMonth_12     91394.7       7034.77     12.99     5.62e-26 ***
quelfeb        2709.95     13910.8       0.1948   0.8458  
Blitz         88619.4      22458.8       3.946    0.0001   ***

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 4.72e+10 S.E. of regression 18163.69 R-squared 0.830055 Adjusted R-squared 0.812228 F(15, 143) 46.56321 P-value(F) 2.36e-47 Log-likelihood −1776.521 Akaike criterion 3585.042 Schwarz criterion 3634.145 Hannan-Quinn 3604.982 rho −0.019542 Durbin-Watson 2.018141

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 36 (DMonth_10)

# senza dummy: ? ols deb_risc const TO GE quelfeb Blitz

Model 5: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

           coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
--------------------------------------------------------
const        73476.4       5313.56    13.83     8.70e-29 ***
TO          −35857.7       7496.77    −4.783    4.01e-06 ***
GE          −33081.2       7496.77    −4.413    1.91e-05 ***
quelfeb     −26996.9      27353.2     −0.9870   0.3252  
Blitz        88619.4      47377.2      1.871    0.0633   *

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 2.26e+11 S.E. of regression 38316.63 R-squared 0.185559 Adjusted R-squared 0.164404 F(4, 154) 8.771662 P-value(F) 2.09e-06 Log-likelihood −1901.100 Akaike criterion 3812.199 Schwarz criterion 3827.544 Hannan-Quinn 3818.431 rho −0.250655 Durbin-Watson 2.462632

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 27 (quelfeb)

# non la facciamo sulle differenze (anche se uno potrebbe pensare che il blitz è una differenza in una specie di random walk). # Non la facciamo sulle differenze perché il DiD già risolve in parte il problema # e, anche se ci potrebbero essere situazioni sfigate (Milano grafico a “W”, Torino grafico piatto), # ci accorgiamo che così non è dalla correlazione alta tra Milano e Torino/Genova # (correlazione che invece non c'è con l'Italia). # Equazione buona su log: ? deb_log = log( deb_deinfl ) Generated series deb_log (ID 39) ? ols deb_log const TO GE dummify(Month) quelfeb Blitz

Model 6: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_log

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio     p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const        10.3816      0.114732      90.49     4.03e-128 ***
TO           −1.16093     0.0796202    −14.58     4.42e-30  ***
GE           −1.69245     0.0796202    −21.26     4.16e-46  ***
DMonth_2     −0.115190    0.157609      −0.7309   0.4661   
DMonth_3      0.950378    0.148596       6.396    2.13e-09  ***
DMonth_4      0.181921    0.148596       1.224    0.2229   
DMonth_5      1.62231     0.148596      10.92     1.47e-20  ***
DMonth_6      0.184963    0.157609       1.174    0.2425   
DMonth_7      0.541646    0.157609       3.437    0.0008    ***
DMonth_8      1.67446     0.157609      10.62     8.52e-20  ***
DMonth_9     −0.264052    0.157609      −1.675    0.0960    *
DMonth_10    −0.121913    0.157609      −0.7735   0.4405   
DMonth_11     1.01463     0.157609       6.438    1.72e-09  ***
DMonth_12     1.67631     0.157609      10.64     7.94e-20  ***
quelfeb      −0.235842    0.311663      −0.7567   0.4505   
Blitz         1.78316     0.503174       3.544    0.0005    ***

Mean dependent var 10.04145 S.D. dependent var 1.090171 Sum squared resid 23.68149 S.E. of regression 0.406946 R-squared 0.873886 Adjusted R-squared 0.860657 F(15, 143) 66.05969 P-value(F) 1.79e-56 Log-likelihood −74.22651 Akaike criterion 180.4530 Schwarz criterion 229.5555 Hannan-Quinn 200.3930 rho 0.007567 Durbin-Watson 1.947751

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

? ols deb_log const TO GE quelfeb Blitz

Model 7: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_log

           coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
---------------------------------------------------------
const       10.9996       0.113107     97.25    3.76e-140 ***
TO          −1.16093      0.159580     −7.275   1.65e-11  ***
GE          −1.69245      0.159580    −10.61    4.51e-20  ***
quelfeb     −0.969041     0.582254     −1.664   0.0981    *
Blitz        1.78316      1.00849       1.768   0.0790    *

Mean dependent var 10.04145 S.D. dependent var 1.090171 Sum squared resid 102.4478 S.E. of regression 0.815626 R-squared 0.454422 Adjusted R-squared 0.440251 F(4, 154) 32.06738 P-value(F) 1.97e-19 Log-likelihood −190.6670 Akaike criterion 391.3339 Schwarz criterion 406.6785 Hannan-Quinn 397.5652 rho −0.227000 Durbin-Watson 2.401827

# Tentiamo di far uscire il grafico: ? ols deb_risc const TO GE dummify(Month) quelfeb

Model 8: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const         47943.1       5365.62      8.935    1.77e-15 ***
TO           −37529.8       3702.63    −10.14     1.48e-18 ***
GE           −34753.3       3702.63     −9.386    1.26e-16 ***
DMonth_2      −3058.75      7382.08     −0.4143   0.6792  
DMonth_3      28152.3       6959.89      4.045    8.50e-05 ***
DMonth_4       5151.07      6959.89      0.7401   0.4604  
DMonth_5      75502.4       6959.89     10.85     2.06e-20 ***
DMonth_6       4684.98      7382.08      0.6346   0.5267  
DMonth_7      16453.3       7382.08      2.229    0.0274   **
DMonth_8      79414.9       7382.08     10.76     3.55e-20 ***
DMonth_9      −8184.66      7382.08     −1.109    0.2694  
DMonth_10     −1293.87      7382.08     −0.1753   0.8611  
DMonth_11     31007.3       7382.08      4.200    4.65e-05 ***
DMonth_12     91394.7       7382.08     12.38     1.98e-24 ***
quelfeb       32249.7      12303.5       2.621    0.0097   ***

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 5.23e+10 S.E. of regression 19060.45 R-squared 0.811551 Adjusted R-squared 0.793230 F(14, 144) 44.29523 P-value(F) 4.87e-45 Log-likelihood −1784.737 Akaike criterion 3599.475 Schwarz criterion 3645.508 Hannan-Quinn 3618.169 rho −0.012765 Durbin-Watson 2.005374

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 36 (DMonth_10)

? err = $uhat Generated series err (ID 40) # panel plot # Fa schifo, usiamo l'altro # Equazione buona su diff: ? deb_risc_incr = deb_risc - deb_risc(-1) Generated series deb_risc_incr (ID 41) ? ols deb_risc_incr const TO GE dummify(Month) quelfeb Blitz

Model 9: Pooled OLS, using 156 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 52 Dependent variable: deb_risc_incr

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const        −92814.6       8328.06    −11.14     4.80e-21 ***
TO             2069.29      5298.79      0.3905   0.6967  
GE             1612.03      5298.79      0.3042   0.7614  
DMonth_2      87019.7      10950.1       7.947    5.71e-13 ***
DMonth_3     116349        10388.2      11.20     3.46e-21 ***
DMonth_4      68586.3      10388.2       6.602    7.77e-10 ***
DMonth_5     161939        10388.2      15.59     2.14e-32 ***
DMonth_6      17788.6      10950.1       1.625    0.1065  
DMonth_7     103356        10950.1       9.439    1.14e-16 ***
DMonth_8     154549        10950.1      14.11     1.09e-28 ***
DMonth_9       3987.91     10950.1       0.3642   0.7163  
DMonth_10     98478.3      10950.1       8.993    1.51e-15 ***
DMonth_11    123889        10950.1      11.31     1.75e-21 ***
DMonth_12    151975        10950.1      13.88     4.33e-28 ***
quelfeb        5842.29     20543.1       0.2844   0.7765  
Blitz        101857        33170.8       3.071    0.0026   ***

Mean dependent var 1207.794 S.D. dependent var 60471.66 Sum squared resid 1.01e+11 S.E. of regression 26822.15 R-squared 0.822303 Adjusted R-squared 0.803264 F(15, 140) 43.19056 P-value(F) 6.33e-45 Log-likelihood −1803.643 Akaike criterion 3639.286 Schwarz criterion 3688.084 Hannan-Quinn 3659.106 rho −0.460246 Durbin-Watson 2.904777

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 27 (quelfeb)

# Equazione buona con l'Italia ? smpl –restrict (Cit == 1 || Cit == 4) Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? ols deb_risc const IT dummify(Month) quelfeb Blitz

Model 10: OLS, using observations 1-53 Dependent variable: deb_risc Omitted because all values were zero: IT Omitted due to exact collinearity: Blitz

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
---------------------------------------------------------
const         33651.2       6374.75     5.279    4.85e-06 ***
DMonth_2       1738.65      9562.13     0.1818   0.8566  
DMonth_3      38593.4       9015.26     4.281    0.0001   ***
DMonth_4      21221.5       9015.26     2.354    0.0236   **
DMonth_5      94721.6       9015.26    10.51     4.55e-13 ***
DMonth_6      16506.8       9562.13     1.726    0.0920   *
DMonth_7      35740.1       9562.13     3.738    0.0006   ***
DMonth_8      81396.1       9562.13     8.512    1.62e-10 ***
DMonth_9     −13468.0       9562.13    −1.408    0.1667  
DMonth_10      3575.54      9562.13     0.3739   0.7104  
DMonth_11     36117.3       9562.13     3.777    0.0005   ***
DMonth_12    162951         9562.13    17.04     6.10e-20 ***
quelfeb       99709.1      15936.9      6.257    2.06e-07 ***

Mean dependent var 74639.13 S.D. dependent var 49779.90 Sum squared resid 8.13e+09 S.E. of regression 14254.38 R-squared 0.936927 Adjusted R-squared 0.918005 F(12, 40) 49.51525 P-value(F) 3.87e-20 Log-likelihood −574.6818 Akaike criterion 1175.364 Schwarz criterion 1200.977 Hannan-Quinn 1185.213 rho 0.174651 Durbin-Watson 1.595154

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

? smpl –full Full data range: 1:01 - 4:53 (n = 212)

? smpl –restrict Cit != 4 Full data range: 1:01 - 4:53 (n = 212) Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

# Test controlling for gli altri blitz: ? other_bl = (GE && (time==38 || time==42 || time==44 || time=45 || time==46)) \

|| (TO && (time == 44 || time == 45 || time == 46) ) || (MI && (time == 41 \
|| time == 44))

Generated series other_bl (ID 42) ? ols deb_risc const TO GE dummify(Month) quelfeb Blitz other_bl

Model 11: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const        46841.5        5140.29      9.113    6.90e-16 ***
TO          −35864.6        3566.72    −10.06     2.70e-18 ***
GE          −33113.9        3579.59     −9.251    3.08e-16 ***
DMonth_2     −3058.75       7059.22     −0.4333   0.6655  
DMonth_3     28152.3        6655.49      4.230    4.17e-05 ***
DMonth_4      5151.07       6655.49      0.7740   0.4402  
DMonth_5     75456.8        6669.58     11.31     1.48e-21 ***
DMonth_6      4627.99       7079.96      0.6537   0.5144  
DMonth_7     16453.3        7059.22      2.331    0.0212   **
DMonth_8     79243.9        7243.75     10.94     1.39e-20 ***
DMonth_9     −8298.65       7141.82     −1.162    0.2472  
DMonth_10    −1407.86       7141.82     −0.1971   0.8440  
DMonth_11    31007.3        7059.22      4.392    2.18e-05 ***
DMonth_12    91394.7        7059.22     12.95     8.30e-26 ***
quelfeb       2374.56      14318.3       0.1658   0.8685  
Blitz        88941.6       22743.9       3.911    0.0001   ***
other_bl       683.931      6498.50      0.1052   0.9163  

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 4.72e+10 S.E. of regression 18226.82 R-squared 0.830068 Adjusted R-squared 0.810921 F(16, 142) 43.35182 P-value(F) 1.64e-46 Log-likelihood −1776.515 Akaike criterion 3587.030 Schwarz criterion 3639.201 Hannan-Quinn 3608.216 rho −0.018393 Durbin-Watson 2.015914

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 42 (other_bl)

? ols deb_log const TO GE dummify(Month) quelfeb Blitz other_bl

Model 12: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_log

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio     p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const       10.3811       0.115157      90.15     3.19e-127 ***
TO          −1.16067      0.0799043    −14.53     7.17e-30  ***
GE          −1.69121      0.0801925    −21.09     1.37e-45  ***
DMonth_2    −0.115190     0.158146      −0.7284   0.4676   
DMonth_3     0.950378     0.149101       6.374    2.41e-09  ***
DMonth_4     0.181921     0.149101       1.220    0.2244   
DMonth_5     1.62404      0.149417      10.87     2.12e-20  ***
DMonth_6     0.187126     0.158610       1.180    0.2401   
DMonth_7     0.541646     0.158146       3.425    0.0008    ***
DMonth_8     1.68095      0.162280      10.36     4.47e-19  ***
DMonth_9    −0.259726     0.159996      −1.623    0.1067   
DMonth_10   −0.117587     0.159996      −0.7349   0.4636   
DMonth_11    1.01463      0.158146       6.416    1.95e-09  ***
DMonth_12    1.67631      0.158146      10.60     1.06e-19  ***
quelfeb     −0.223113     0.320769      −0.6956   0.4878   
Blitz        1.77093      0.509524       3.476    0.0007    ***
other_bl    −0.0259569    0.145584      −0.1783   0.8587   

Mean dependent var 10.04145 S.D. dependent var 1.090171 Sum squared resid 23.67619 S.E. of regression 0.408330 R-squared 0.873914 Adjusted R-squared 0.859707 F(16, 142) 61.51363 P-value(F) 1.46e-55 Log-likelihood −74.20871 Akaike criterion 182.4174 Schwarz criterion 234.5888 Hannan-Quinn 203.6037 rho 0.005117 Durbin-Watson 1.952596

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 42 (other_bl)

# Tutti i blitz di Milano insieme: ? other_bl = (GE && (time==38 || time==42 || time==44 || time=45 || time==46)) \

|| (TO && (time == 44 || time == 45 || time == 46) )

Replaced series other_bl (ID 42) ? time_bl = (time == 41 || time == 44 || time == 38) Generated series time_bl (ID 43) ? MI_bl = MI && time_bl Generated series MI_bl (ID 44) ? ols deb_risc const TO GE dummify(Month) MI_bl time_bl other_bl

Model 13: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
---------------------------------------------------------
const         47032.9       5461.80     8.611    1.25e-14 ***
TO           −36100.1       3838.38    −9.405    1.25e-16 ***
GE           −33452.6       3871.61    −8.640    1.06e-14 ***
DMonth_2       1633.52      7190.51     0.2272   0.8206  
DMonth_3      28152.3       7042.23     3.998    0.0001   ***
DMonth_4       5151.07      7042.23     0.7315   0.4657  
DMonth_5      73972.5       7210.57    10.26     8.07e-19 ***
DMonth_6       4400.23      7500.90     0.5866   0.5584  
DMonth_7      16453.3       7469.41     2.203    0.0292   **
DMonth_8      76933.1       7718.89     9.967    4.57e-18 ***
DMonth_9      −8754.17      7594.60    −1.153    0.2510  
DMonth_10     −1863.38      7594.60    −0.2454   0.8065  
DMonth_11     31007.3       7469.41     4.151    5.68e-05 ***
DMonth_12     91394.7       7469.41    12.24     5.85e-24 ***
MI_bl         28674.3      14521.7      1.975    0.0503   *
time_bl       −1908.72      9490.00    −0.2011   0.8409  
other_bl       3417.05      8239.61     0.4147   0.6790  

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 5.28e+10 S.E. of regression 19285.94 R-squared 0.809746 Adjusted R-squared 0.788309 F(16, 142) 37.77311 P-value(F) 4.20e-43 Log-likelihood −1785.495 Akaike criterion 3604.991 Schwarz criterion 3657.162 Hannan-Quinn 3626.177 rho −0.002232 Durbin-Watson 1.987777

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 43 (time_bl)

# Giusto per scrupolo: ? tutti_bl = other_bl || MI_bl Generated series tutti_bl (ID 45) ? tutti_t = time==38 || time == 41 || time==42 || time==44 || time=45 || \

time==46

Generated series tutti_t (ID 46) ? ols deb_risc const TO GE dummify(Month) tutti_bl tutti_t

Model 14: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
---------------------------------------------------------
const         48129.9      5460.22      8.815    3.71e-15 ***
TO           −37529.8      3766.97     −9.963    4.40e-18 ***
GE           −35313.7      3784.68     −9.331    1.84e-16 ***
DMonth_2       2547.95     7158.27      0.3559   0.7224  
DMonth_3      28152.3      7080.83      3.976    0.0001   ***
DMonth_4       5151.07     7080.83      0.7275   0.4681  
DMonth_5      75649.1      7177.26     10.54     1.41e-19 ***
DMonth_6       4868.42     7652.04      0.6362   0.5256  
DMonth_7      16453.3      7510.36      2.191    0.0301   **
DMonth_8      77123.3      7681.63     10.04     2.78e-18 ***
DMonth_9      −9238.73     7624.19     −1.212    0.2276  
DMonth_10     −2347.93     7624.19     −0.3080   0.7586  
DMonth_11     31007.3      7510.36      4.129    6.18e-05 ***
DMonth_12     91394.7      7510.36     12.17     7.87e-24 ***
tutti_bl      14850.0      9691.82      1.532    0.1277  
tutti_t       −5683.76     7877.28     −0.7215   0.4718  

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 5.38e+10 S.E. of regression 19391.66 R-squared 0.806300 Adjusted R-squared 0.785981 F(15, 143) 39.68354 P-value(F) 2.27e-43 Log-likelihood −1786.923 Akaike criterion 3605.845 Schwarz criterion 3654.948 Hannan-Quinn 3625.785 rho −0.018810 Durbin-Watson 2.017266

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 36 (DMonth_10)

# Anche Genova: ? quelgen = time == 37 Generated series quelgen (ID 47) ? blitz_g = (GE && quelgen) Generated series blitz_g (ID 48) ? ols deb_risc const TO GE dummify(Month) quelgen blitz_g quelfeb Blitz

Model 15: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

            coefficient   std. error    t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const        48343.0        5665.73      8.533     2.04e-14 ***
TO          −35857.9        3573.69    −10.03      3.27e-18 ***
GE          −33098.0        3599.50     −9.195     4.48e-16 ***
DMonth_2     −4567.75       7456.84     −0.6126    0.5412  
DMonth_3     26643.3        7074.18      3.766     0.0002   ***
DMonth_4      3642.07       7074.18      0.5148    0.6075  
DMonth_5     73993.4        7074.18     10.46      2.62e-19 ***
DMonth_6      3175.98       7456.84      0.4259    0.6708  
DMonth_7     14944.3        7456.84      2.004     0.0470   **
DMonth_8     77905.9        7456.84     10.45      2.81e-19 ***
DMonth_9     −9693.66       7456.84     −1.300     0.1957  
DMonth_10    −2802.87       7456.84     −0.3759    0.7076  
DMonth_11    29498.3        7456.84      3.956     0.0001   ***
DMonth_12    89885.7        7456.84     12.05      1.93e-23 ***
quelgen      −7838.79      13988.9      −0.5604    0.5761  
blitz_g        881.337     22585.6       0.03902   0.9689  
quelfeb       2712.77      13988.9       0.1939    0.8465  
Blitz        88610.9       22585.6       3.923     0.0001   ***

Mean dependent var 50544.76 S.D. dependent var 41916.90 Sum squared resid 4.70e+10 S.E. of regression 18265.45 R-squared 0.830549 Adjusted R-squared 0.810119 F(17, 141) 40.65284 P-value(F) 9.03e-46 Log-likelihood −1776.290 Akaike criterion 3588.579 Schwarz criterion 3643.820 Hannan-Quinn 3611.012 rho −0.020769 Durbin-Watson 2.020496

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 48 (blitz_g)

? ols deb_log const TO GE dummify(Month) quelgen blitz_g quelfeb Blitz

Model 16: Pooled OLS, using 159 observations Included 3 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_log

            coefficient   std. error   t-ratio     p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const       10.4394       0.125682      83.06     1.25e-121 ***
TO          −1.16081      0.0792748    −14.64     4.24e-30  ***
GE          −1.67951      0.0798472    −21.03     2.53e-45  ***
DMonth_2    −0.177320     0.165414      −1.072    0.2856   
DMonth_3     0.888248     0.156926       5.660    8.15e-08  ***
DMonth_4     0.119791     0.156926       0.7634   0.4465   
DMonth_5     1.56018      0.156926       9.942    5.62e-18  ***
DMonth_6     0.122833     0.165414       0.7426   0.4590   
DMonth_7     0.479516     0.165414       2.899    0.0043    ***
DMonth_8     1.61233      0.165414       9.747    1.77e-17  ***
DMonth_9    −0.326182     0.165414      −1.972    0.0506    *
DMonth_10   −0.184043     0.165414      −1.113    0.2678   
DMonth_11    0.952498     0.165414       5.758    5.11e-08  ***
DMonth_12    1.61418      0.165414       9.758    1.66e-17  ***
quelgen     −0.0842327    0.310315      −0.2714   0.7864   
blitz_g     −0.679250     0.501015      −1.356    0.1773   
quelfeb     −0.238019     0.310315      −0.7670   0.4443   
Blitz        1.78969      0.501015       3.572    0.0005    ***

Mean dependent var 10.04145 S.D. dependent var 1.090171 Sum squared resid 23.14813 S.E. of regression 0.405180 R-squared 0.876726 Adjusted R-squared 0.861864 F(17, 141) 58.98810 P-value(F) 2.44e-55 Log-likelihood −72.41551 Akaike criterion 180.8310 Schwarz criterion 236.0713 Hannan-Quinn 203.2635 rho 0.012670 Durbin-Watson 1.938143

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 47 (quelgen)

? smpl –full Full data range: 1:01 - 4:53 (n = 212)

# placebo: ? loop b=1..53

blitz_plac = const - const
smpl –replace –restrict MI
blitz_plac = (time == b)
smpl –replace –restrict Cit != 2
ols deb_risc const MI GE dummify(Month) quelfeb blitz_plac
endloop

loop: b = 1

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 17: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const          3357.11       6575.26     0.5106    0.6109  
MI            37639.1        3727.82    10.10      1.60e-16 ***
DMonth_2        532.180      9278.04     0.05736   0.9544  
DMonth_3      34728.0        8773.37     3.958     0.0001   ***
DMonth_4      11152.3        8773.37     1.271     0.2069  
DMonth_5      84984.3        8773.37     9.687     1.15e-15 ***
DMonth_6      10892.6        9278.04     1.174     0.2434  
DMonth_7      24901.6        9278.04     2.684     0.0086   ***
DMonth_8      88545.1        9278.04     9.544     2.30e-15 ***
DMonth_9      −6302.77       9278.04    −0.6793    0.4987  
DMonth_10      1544.62       9278.04     0.1665    0.8681  
DMonth_11     35974.9        9278.04     3.877     0.0002   ***
DMonth_12    115472          9278.04    12.45      2.38e-21 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15091.4      3.166     0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −5793.44      20228.2     −0.2864    0.7752  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19089.30 R-squared 0.853493 Adjusted R-squared 0.830954 F(14, 91) 37.86653 P-value(F) 8.43e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.150 Akaike criterion 2404.301 Schwarz criterion 2444.252 Hannan-Quinn 2420.493 rho 0.000806 Durbin-Watson 1.978794

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 2

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 18: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2753.92      6315.00     0.4361   0.6638  
MI             37686.8       3726.70    10.11     1.48e-16 ***
DMonth_2        2151.63      9406.81     0.2287   0.8196  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8533.13     4.138    7.82e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8533.13     1.375    0.1726  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8533.13    10.03     2.24e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9050.75     1.268    0.2082  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9050.75     2.815    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9050.75     9.847    5.32e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9050.75    −0.6324   0.5287  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9050.75     0.2347   0.8150  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9050.75     4.039    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9050.75    12.82     4.18e-22 ***
quelfeb        46733.3      15300.9      3.054    0.0030   ***
blitz_plac     −8320.88     20508.9     −0.4057   0.6859  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19080.65 R-squared 0.853626 Adjusted R-squared 0.831107 F(14, 91) 37.90676 P-value(F) 8.09e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.102 Akaike criterion 2404.205 Schwarz criterion 2444.156 Hannan-Quinn 2420.397 rho 0.001389 Durbin-Watson 1.976600

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 3

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 19: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const           2847.18      6320.41     0.4505    0.6534  
MI             37500.3       3729.38    10.06      1.96e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9058.63     0.1227    0.9026  
DMonth_3       35150.9       8777.04     4.005     0.0001   ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8540.56     1.374     0.1729  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8540.56    10.02      2.34e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9058.63     1.266     0.2086  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9058.63     2.813     0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9058.63     9.839     5.55e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9058.63    −0.6318    0.5291  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9058.63     0.2345    0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9058.63     4.035     0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9058.63    12.81      4.40e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15097.7      3.164     0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      1564.89     20236.6      0.07733   0.9385  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19097.27 R-squared 0.853371 Adjusted R-squared 0.830812 F(14, 91) 37.82949 P-value(F) 8.75e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.195 Akaike criterion 2404.389 Schwarz criterion 2444.341 Hannan-Quinn 2420.582 rho 0.002127 Durbin-Watson 1.975337

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 4

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 20: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2912.13      6314.57     0.4612   0.6458  
MI             37370.4       3725.93    10.03     2.21e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9050.25     0.1228   0.9025  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8532.65     4.138    7.81e-05 ***
DMonth_4       10886.7       8768.91     1.242    0.2176  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8532.65    10.03     2.23e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9050.25     1.268    0.2082  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9050.25     2.815    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9050.25     9.848    5.31e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9050.25    −0.6324   0.5287  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9050.25     0.2347   0.8150  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9050.25     4.039    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9050.25    12.82     4.17e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15083.7      3.167    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      8449.46     20217.9      0.4179   0.6770  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19079.60 R-squared 0.853642 Adjusted R-squared 0.831125 F(14, 91) 37.91165 P-value(F) 8.05e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.096 Akaike criterion 2404.193 Schwarz criterion 2444.145 Hannan-Quinn 2420.386 rho −0.002213 Durbin-Watson 1.983918

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 5

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 21: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2996.62      6294.88     0.4760   0.6352  
MI             37201.4       3714.31    10.02     2.37e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9022.03     0.1232   0.9022  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8506.05     4.151    7.45e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8506.05     1.379    0.1712  
DMonth_5       83823.1       8741.58     9.589    1.85e-15 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9022.03     1.272    0.2068  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9022.03     2.824    0.0058   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9022.03     9.879    4.58e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9022.03    −0.6344   0.5274  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9022.03     0.2354   0.8144  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9022.03     4.052    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9022.03    12.86     3.47e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15036.7      3.177    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac     17405.6      20154.9      0.8636   0.3901  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.29e+10 S.E. of regression 19020.12 R-squared 0.854553 Adjusted R-squared 0.832177 F(14, 91) 38.18986 P-value(F) 6.10e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.766 Akaike criterion 2403.531 Schwarz criterion 2443.483 Hannan-Quinn 2419.724 rho −0.001873 Durbin-Watson 1.986420

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 6

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 22: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error    t-ratio    p-value 
------------------------------------------------------------
const          2832.75       6320.71     0.4482     0.6551  
MI            37529.1        3730.07    10.06       1.90e-16 ***
DMonth_2       1111.52       9058.93     0.1227     0.9026  
DMonth_3      35307.4        8540.84     4.134      7.92e-05 ***
DMonth_4      11731.7        8540.84     1.374      0.1729  
DMonth_5      85563.7        8540.84    10.02       2.34e-16 ***
DMonth_6      11467.5        9415.32     1.218      0.2264  
DMonth_7      25480.9        9058.93     2.813      0.0060   ***
DMonth_8      89124.5        9058.93     9.838      5.56e-16 ***
DMonth_9      −5723.43       9058.93    −0.6318     0.5291  
DMonth_10      2123.96       9058.93     0.2345     0.8152  
DMonth_11     36554.2        9058.93     4.035      0.0001   ***
DMonth_12    116051          9058.93    12.81       4.41e-22 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15098.2      3.164      0.0021   ***
blitz_plac       35.7317    20527.5      0.001741   0.9986  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19097.90 R-squared 0.853361 Adjusted R-squared 0.830801 F(14, 91) 37.82658 P-value(F) 8.77e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.198 Akaike criterion 2404.396 Schwarz criterion 2444.348 Hannan-Quinn 2420.589 rho 0.002088 Durbin-Watson 1.975392

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 7

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 23: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3139.56      6232.73     0.5037   0.6157  
MI             36915.5       3678.15    10.04     2.14e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8932.84     0.1244   0.9012  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8421.96     4.192    6.39e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8421.96     1.393    0.1670  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8421.96    10.16     1.19e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8932.84     1.284    0.2023  
DMonth_7       21411.2       9284.27     2.306    0.0234   **
DMonth_8       89124.5       8932.84     9.977    2.85e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8932.84    −0.6407   0.5233  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8932.84     0.2378   0.8126  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8932.84     4.092    9.23e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8932.84    12.99     1.92e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14888.1      3.209    0.0018   ***
blitz_plac     32557.4      20241.8      1.608    0.1112  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.23e+10 S.E. of regression 18832.08 R-squared 0.857415 Adjusted R-squared 0.835478 F(14, 91) 39.08674 P-value(F) 2.52e-32 Log-likelihood −1185.712 Akaike criterion 2401.425 Schwarz criterion 2441.376 Hannan-Quinn 2417.617 rho 0.003737 Durbin-Watson 1.972065

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 8

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 24: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const           2815.01      6320.42     0.4454    0.6571  
MI             37564.6       3729.90    10.07      1.81e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9058.53     0.1227    0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8540.46     4.134     7.92e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8540.46     1.374     0.1729  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8540.46    10.02      2.33e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9058.53     1.266     0.2086  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9058.53     2.813     0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89355.1       9414.90     9.491     2.96e-15 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9058.53    −0.6318    0.5291  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9058.53     0.2345    0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9058.53     4.035     0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9058.53    12.81      4.40e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15097.5      3.164     0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −1844.73     20526.6     −0.08987   0.9286  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19097.05 R-squared 0.853374 Adjusted R-squared 0.830816 F(14, 91) 37.83051 P-value(F) 8.74e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.193 Akaike criterion 2404.387 Schwarz criterion 2444.338 Hannan-Quinn 2420.579 rho 0.003056 Durbin-Watson 1.973461

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 9

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 25: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2706.12      6305.92     0.4291   0.6688  
MI             37782.4       3721.34    10.15     1.22e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9037.73     0.1230   0.9024  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8520.86     4.144    7.65e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8520.86     1.377    0.1719  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8520.86    10.04     2.09e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9037.73     1.269    0.2076  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9037.73     2.819    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9037.73     9.861    4.97e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −4050.05      9393.29    −0.4312   0.6674  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9037.73     0.2350   0.8147  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9037.73     4.045    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9037.73    12.84     3.84e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15062.9      3.172    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −13387.0      20479.4     −0.6537   0.5150  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19053.22 R-squared 0.854046 Adjusted R-squared 0.831592 F(14, 91) 38.03472 P-value(F) 7.12e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.950 Akaike criterion 2403.900 Schwarz criterion 2443.851 Hannan-Quinn 2420.092 rho −0.000669 Durbin-Watson 1.980500

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 10

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 26: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2779.80      6318.14     0.4400   0.6610  
MI             37635.0       3728.55    10.09     1.63e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9055.25     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8537.37     4.136    7.87e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8537.37     1.374    0.1728  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8537.37    10.02     2.29e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9055.25     1.267    0.2084  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9055.25     2.814    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9055.25     9.842    5.45e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9055.25    −0.6321   0.5289  
DMonth_10       2821.15      9411.50     0.2998   0.7650  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9055.25     4.037    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9055.25    12.82     4.31e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15092.1      3.165    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −5577.49     20519.1     −0.2718   0.7864  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19090.15 R-squared 0.853480 Adjusted R-squared 0.830939 F(14, 91) 37.86257 P-value(F) 8.46e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.155 Akaike criterion 2404.310 Schwarz criterion 2444.262 Hannan-Quinn 2420.503 rho 0.000463 Durbin-Watson 1.978478

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 11

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 27: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2855.87      6320.20     0.4519   0.6524  
MI             37482.9       3729.77    10.05     2.01e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9058.20     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8540.15     4.134    7.91e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8540.15     1.374    0.1729  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8540.15    10.02     2.33e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9058.20     1.266    0.2086  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9058.20     2.813    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9058.20     9.839    5.54e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9058.20    −0.6319   0.5291  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9058.20     0.2345   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36243.5       9414.56     3.850    0.0002   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9058.20    12.81     4.39e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15097.0      3.164    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      2485.91     20525.8      0.1211   0.9039  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19096.36 R-squared 0.853385 Adjusted R-squared 0.830829 F(14, 91) 37.83372 P-value(F) 8.71e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.190 Akaike criterion 2404.379 Schwarz criterion 2444.331 Hannan-Quinn 2420.572 rho −0.002990 Durbin-Watson 1.985389

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 12

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 28: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3618.60      5719.77     0.6326   0.5286  
MI             35957.4       3375.43    10.65     1.11e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8197.66     0.1356   0.8924  
DMonth_3       35307.4       7728.82     4.568    1.54e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       7728.82     1.518    0.1325  
DMonth_5       85563.7       7728.82    11.07     1.52e-18 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8197.66     1.399    0.1651  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8197.66     3.108    0.0025   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8197.66    10.87     3.91e-18 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8197.66    −0.6982   0.4868  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8197.66     0.2591   0.7961  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8197.66     4.459    2.34e-05 ***
DMonth_12     105634         8520.16    12.40     2.96e-21 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      13662.8      3.497    0.0007   ***
blitz_plac     83334.9      18575.8      4.486    2.11e-05 ***

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 2.72e+10 S.E. of regression 17282.18 R-squared 0.879919 Adjusted R-squared 0.861445 F(14, 91) 47.63004 P-value(F) 1.18e-35 Log-likelihood −1176.608 Akaike criterion 2383.217 Schwarz criterion 2423.169 Hannan-Quinn 2399.410 rho 0.051943 Durbin-Watson 1.874810

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 13

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 29: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error    t-ratio    p-value 
------------------------------------------------------------
const          4707.55       6540.28     0.7198     0.4735  
MI            37920.4        3707.99    10.23       8.59e-17 ***
DMonth_2       −958.930      9228.69    −0.1039     0.9175  
DMonth_3      33236.9        8726.70     3.809      0.0003   ***
DMonth_4       9661.21       8726.70     1.107      0.2712  
DMonth_5      83493.2        8726.70     9.568      2.05e-15 ***
DMonth_6       9401.51       9228.69     1.019      0.3110  
DMonth_7      23410.5        9228.69     2.537      0.0129   **
DMonth_8      87054.0        9228.69     9.433      3.92e-15 ***
DMonth_9      −7793.88       9228.69    −0.8445     0.4006  
DMonth_10        53.5061     9228.69     0.005798   0.9954  
DMonth_11     34483.8        9228.69     3.737      0.0003   ***
DMonth_12    113980          9228.69    12.35       3.69e-21 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15011.1      3.183      0.0020   ***
blitz_plac   −20704.5       20120.6     −1.029      0.3062  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.28e+10 S.E. of regression 18987.74 R-squared 0.855048 Adjusted R-squared 0.832747 F(14, 91) 38.34237 P-value(F) 5.24e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.585 Akaike criterion 2403.170 Schwarz criterion 2443.122 Hannan-Quinn 2419.363 rho 0.046814 Durbin-Watson 1.886851

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 36 (DMonth_10)

loop: b = 14

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 30: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2807.51      6320.13     0.4442   0.6579  
MI             37579.6       3729.73    10.08     1.77e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1441.53      9414.46     0.1531   0.8786  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8540.06     4.134    7.91e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8540.06     1.374    0.1729  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8540.06    10.02     2.33e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9058.10     1.266    0.2086  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9058.10     2.813    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9058.10     9.839    5.53e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9058.10    −0.6319   0.5291  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9058.10     0.2345   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9058.10     4.036    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9058.10    12.81     4.39e-22 ***
quelfeb        47443.4      15313.3      3.098    0.0026   ***
blitz_plac     −2640.04     20525.6     −0.1286   0.8979  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19096.16 R-squared 0.853388 Adjusted R-squared 0.830832 F(14, 91) 37.83464 P-value(F) 8.70e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.188 Akaike criterion 2404.377 Schwarz criterion 2444.329 Hannan-Quinn 2420.570 rho 0.001588 Durbin-Watson 1.976328

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 15

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 31: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2947.21      6308.05     0.4672   0.6415  
MI             37300.2       3722.09    10.02     2.30e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9040.92     0.1229   0.9024  
DMonth_3       34090.6       8759.87     3.892    0.0002   ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8523.86     1.376    0.1721  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8523.86    10.04     2.12e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9040.92     1.269    0.2077  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9040.92     2.818    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9040.92     9.858    5.06e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9040.92    −0.6331   0.5283  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9040.92     0.2349   0.8148  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9040.92     4.043    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9040.92    12.84     3.92e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15068.2      3.170    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     12167.9      20197.1      0.6025   0.5484  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19059.92 R-squared 0.853944 Adjusted R-squared 0.831473 F(14, 91) 38.00338 P-value(F) 7.35e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.987 Akaike criterion 2403.974 Schwarz criterion 2443.926 Hannan-Quinn 2420.167 rho −0.003593 Durbin-Watson 1.986639

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 16

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 32: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3019.90      6287.04     0.4803   0.6321  
MI             37154.8       3709.69    10.02     2.37e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9010.80     0.1234   0.9021  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8495.47     4.156    7.31e-05 ***
DMonth_4        9744.37      8730.69     1.116    0.2673  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8495.47    10.07     1.81e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9010.80     1.273    0.2062  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9010.80     2.828    0.0058   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9010.80     9.891    4.32e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9010.80    −0.6352   0.5269  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9010.80     0.2357   0.8142  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9010.80     4.057    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9010.80    12.88     3.22e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15018.0      3.181    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac     19872.9      20129.8      0.9872   0.3261  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.28e+10 S.E. of regression 18996.44 R-squared 0.854915 Adjusted R-squared 0.832594 F(14, 91) 38.30133 P-value(F) 5.46e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.633 Akaike criterion 2403.267 Schwarz criterion 2443.219 Hannan-Quinn 2419.460 rho −0.002492 Durbin-Watson 1.984456

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 17

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 33: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2798.03      6319.50     0.4428   0.6590  
MI             37598.6       3728.84    10.08     1.71e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9057.31     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8539.32     4.135    7.90e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8539.32     1.374    0.1729  
DMonth_5       85928.1       8775.76     9.792    6.96e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9057.31     1.267    0.2085  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9057.31     2.813    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9057.31     9.840    5.51e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9057.31    −0.6319   0.5290  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9057.31     0.2345   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9057.31     4.036    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9057.31    12.81     4.36e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15095.5      3.165    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −3644.64     20233.7     −0.1801   0.8575  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19094.49 R-squared 0.853413 Adjusted R-squared 0.830862 F(14, 91) 37.84238 P-value(F) 8.63e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.179 Akaike criterion 2404.358 Schwarz criterion 2444.310 Hannan-Quinn 2420.551 rho 0.006855 Durbin-Watson 1.965284

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 18

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 34: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3101.89      6253.10     0.4961   0.6211  
MI             36990.9       3690.17    10.02     2.27e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8962.04     0.1240   0.9016  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8449.49     4.179    6.72e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8449.49     1.388    0.1684  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8449.49    10.13     1.39e-16 ***
DMonth_6        7901.51      9314.61     0.8483   0.3985  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8962.04     2.843    0.0055   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8962.04     9.945    3.33e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8962.04    −0.6386   0.5247  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8962.04     0.2370   0.8132  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8962.04     4.079    9.69e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8962.04    12.95     2.34e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14936.7      3.198    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac     28563.6      20307.9      1.407    0.1630  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.25e+10 S.E. of regression 18893.63 R-squared 0.856481 Adjusted R-squared 0.834401 F(14, 91) 38.79023 P-value(F) 3.37e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.058 Akaike criterion 2402.117 Schwarz criterion 2442.068 Hannan-Quinn 2418.309 rho 0.006238 Durbin-Watson 1.967234

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 19

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 35: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2861.14      6319.94     0.4527   0.6518  
MI             37472.3       3729.62    10.05     2.03e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9057.83     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8539.81     4.134    7.91e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8539.81     1.374    0.1729  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8539.81    10.02     2.33e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9057.83     1.267    0.2086  
DMonth_7       25100.3       9414.18     2.666    0.0091   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9057.83     9.839    5.53e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9057.83    −0.6319   0.5291  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9057.83     0.2345   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9057.83     4.036    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9057.83    12.81     4.38e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15096.4      3.165    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      3044.88     20525.0      0.1484   0.8824  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19095.59 R-squared 0.853397 Adjusted R-squared 0.830842 F(14, 91) 37.83730 P-value(F) 8.68e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.185 Akaike criterion 2404.371 Schwarz criterion 2444.322 Hannan-Quinn 2420.563 rho 0.000646 Durbin-Watson 1.978260

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 20

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 36: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2738.42      6312.52     0.4338   0.6655  
MI             37717.8       3725.23    10.12     1.40e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9047.19     0.1229   0.9025  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8529.78     4.139    7.77e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8529.78     1.375    0.1724  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8529.78    10.03     2.20e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9047.19     1.268    0.2080  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9047.19     2.816    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       90369.9       9403.12     9.611    1.66e-15 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9047.19    −0.6326   0.5286  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9047.19     0.2348   0.8149  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9047.19     4.040    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9047.19    12.83     4.09e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15078.7      3.168    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −9963.61     20500.9     −0.4860   0.6281  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19073.16 R-squared 0.853741 Adjusted R-squared 0.831239 F(14, 91) 37.94163 P-value(F) 7.82e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.061 Akaike criterion 2404.121 Schwarz criterion 2444.073 Hannan-Quinn 2420.314 rho −0.001126 Durbin-Watson 1.981493

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 21

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 37: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2691.54      6302.30     0.4271   0.6703  
MI             37811.6       3719.20    10.17     1.15e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9032.55     0.1231   0.9023  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8515.97     4.146    7.58e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8515.97     1.378    0.1717  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8515.97    10.05     2.03e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9032.55     1.270    0.2073  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9032.55     2.821    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9032.55     9.867    4.84e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −3856.79      9387.90    −0.4108   0.6822  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9032.55     0.2351   0.8146  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9032.55     4.047    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9032.55    12.85     3.71e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15054.2      3.173    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −14933.1      20467.7     −0.7296   0.4675  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19042.28 R-squared 0.854214 Adjusted R-squared 0.831785 F(14, 91) 38.08587 P-value(F) 6.77e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.889 Akaike criterion 2403.778 Schwarz criterion 2443.730 Hannan-Quinn 2419.971 rho −0.004485 Durbin-Watson 1.987939

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 22

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 38: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2774.09      6317.55     0.4391   0.6616  
MI             37646.5       3728.21    10.10     1.60e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9054.41     0.1228   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8536.58     4.136    7.86e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8536.58     1.374    0.1727  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8536.58    10.02     2.28e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9054.41     1.267    0.2084  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9054.41     2.814    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9054.41     9.843    5.43e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9054.41    −0.6321   0.5289  
DMonth_10       2896.81      9410.62     0.3078   0.7589  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9054.41     4.037    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9054.41    12.82     4.28e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15090.7      3.166    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −6182.84     20517.2     −0.3013   0.7638  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19088.38 R-squared 0.853507 Adjusted R-squared 0.830970 F(14, 91) 37.87081 P-value(F) 8.39e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.145 Akaike criterion 2404.291 Schwarz criterion 2444.242 Hannan-Quinn 2420.483 rho 0.001391 Durbin-Watson 1.976645

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 23

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 39: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2934.08      6311.13     0.4649   0.6431  
MI             37326.5       3724.41    10.02     2.29e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9045.20     0.1229   0.9025  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8527.90     4.140    7.74e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8527.90     1.376    0.1723  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8527.90    10.03     2.17e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9045.20     1.268    0.2079  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9045.20     2.817    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9045.20     9.853    5.17e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9045.20    −0.6328   0.5285  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9045.20     0.2348   0.8149  
DMonth_11      35207.3       9401.05     3.745    0.0003   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9045.20    12.83     4.03e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15075.3      3.169    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     10775.8      20496.4      0.5257   0.6003  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19068.96 R-squared 0.853805 Adjusted R-squared 0.831314 F(14, 91) 37.96122 P-value(F) 7.66e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.037 Akaike criterion 2404.075 Schwarz criterion 2444.026 Hannan-Quinn 2420.267 rho −0.004880 Durbin-Watson 1.989162

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 24

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 40: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3122.76      6242.15     0.5003   0.6181  
MI             36949.1       3683.71    10.03     2.21e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8946.35     0.1242   0.9014  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8434.70     4.186    6.54e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8434.70     1.391    0.1677  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8434.70    10.14     1.28e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8946.35     1.282    0.2030  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8946.35     2.848    0.0054   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8946.35     9.962    3.06e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8946.35    −0.6397   0.5239  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8946.35     0.2374   0.8129  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8946.35     4.086    9.44e-05 ***
DMonth_12     112204         9298.31    12.07     1.38e-20 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14910.6      3.204    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac     30776.1      20272.4      1.518    0.1324  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.24e+10 S.E. of regression 18860.55 R-squared 0.856983 Adjusted R-squared 0.834981 F(14, 91) 38.94922 P-value(F) 2.88e-32 Log-likelihood −1185.873 Akaike criterion 2401.745 Schwarz criterion 2441.697 Hannan-Quinn 2417.938 rho −0.005387 Durbin-Watson 1.990000

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 25

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 41: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const          2991.53       6577.95     0.4548    0.6503  
MI            37562.9        3729.35    10.07      1.80e-16 ***
DMonth_2        935.840      9281.84     0.1008    0.9199  
DMonth_3      35131.7        8776.96     4.003     0.0001   ***
DMonth_4      11556.0        8776.96     1.317     0.1913  
DMonth_5      85388.0        8776.96     9.729     9.42e-16 ***
DMonth_6      11296.3        9281.84     1.217     0.2267  
DMonth_7      25305.2        9281.84     2.726     0.0077   ***
DMonth_8      88948.8        9281.84     9.583     1.90e-15 ***
DMonth_9      −5899.11       9281.84    −0.6356    0.5267  
DMonth_10      1948.28       9281.84     0.2099    0.8342  
DMonth_11     36378.6        9281.84     3.919     0.0002   ***
DMonth_12    115875          9281.84    12.48      1.99e-21 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15097.6      3.164     0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −1756.84      20236.5     −0.08682   0.9310  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19097.11 R-squared 0.853373 Adjusted R-squared 0.830815 F(14, 91) 37.83025 P-value(F) 8.74e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.194 Akaike criterion 2404.387 Schwarz criterion 2444.339 Hannan-Quinn 2420.580 rho 0.002651 Durbin-Watson 1.974256

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 26

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 42: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2650.06      6289.83     0.4213   0.6745  
MI             37894.5       3711.85    10.21     9.34e-17 ***
DMonth_2        3527.80      9369.33     0.3765   0.7074  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8499.12     4.154    7.36e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8499.12     1.380    0.1709  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8499.12    10.07     1.85e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9014.68     1.273    0.2064  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9014.68     2.827    0.0058   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9014.68     9.887    4.41e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9014.68    −0.6349   0.5271  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9014.68     0.2356   0.8143  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9014.68     4.055    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9014.68    12.87     3.30e-22 ***
quelfeb        45357.1      15239.9      2.976    0.0037   ***
blitz_plac    −19330.2      20427.2     −0.9463   0.3465  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.29e+10 S.E. of regression 19004.62 R-squared 0.854790 Adjusted R-squared 0.832450 F(14, 91) 38.26277 P-value(F) 5.67e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.679 Akaike criterion 2403.358 Schwarz criterion 2443.310 Hannan-Quinn 2419.551 rho −0.012674 Durbin-Watson 2.003849

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 36 (DMonth_10)

loop: b = 27

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 43: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2579.19      6259.23     0.4121   0.6813  
MI             38036.3       3693.27    10.30     6.07e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8970.93     0.1239   0.9017  
DMonth_3       37991.6       8692.06     4.371    3.28e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8457.88     1.387    0.1688  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8457.88    10.12     1.46e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8970.93     1.279    0.2042  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8970.93     2.840    0.0056   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8970.93     9.935    3.49e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8970.93    −0.6380   0.5251  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8970.93     0.2368   0.8134  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8970.93     4.075    9.83e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8970.93    12.94     2.48e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14951.6      3.195    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac    −26842.5      20040.7     −1.339    0.1838  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.25e+10 S.E. of regression 18912.39 R-squared 0.856196 Adjusted R-squared 0.834072 F(14, 91) 38.70044 P-value(F) 3.68e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.163 Akaike criterion 2402.327 Schwarz criterion 2442.278 Hannan-Quinn 2418.519 rho −0.024395 Durbin-Watson 2.026503

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 28

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 44: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2680.40      6298.57     0.4256   0.6714  
MI             37833.8       3716.49    10.18     1.07e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9027.32     0.1231   0.9023  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8511.04     4.148    7.51e-05 ***
DMonth_4       13343.0       8746.70     1.525    0.1306  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8511.04    10.05     1.98e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9027.32     1.271    0.2070  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9027.32     2.823    0.0058   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9027.32     9.873    4.71e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9027.32    −0.6340   0.5277  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9027.32     0.2353   0.8145  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9027.32     4.049    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9027.32    12.86     3.59e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15045.5      3.175    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac    −16113.5      20166.7     −0.7990   0.4264  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19031.26 R-squared 0.854383 Adjusted R-squared 0.831980 F(14, 91) 38.13756 P-value(F) 6.43e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.828 Akaike criterion 2403.655 Schwarz criterion 2443.607 Hannan-Quinn 2419.848 rho −0.007474 Durbin-Watson 1.993758

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 29

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 45: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2885.48      6317.94     0.4567   0.6490  
MI             37423.7       3727.92    10.04     2.12e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9055.08     0.1228   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8537.21     4.136    7.87e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8537.21     1.374    0.1728  
DMonth_5       85001.2       8773.60     9.688    1.14e-15 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9055.08     1.267    0.2084  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9055.08     2.814    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9055.08     9.842    5.45e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9055.08    −0.6321   0.5289  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9055.08     0.2346   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9055.08     4.037    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9055.08    12.82     4.30e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15091.8      3.166    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      5624.51     20228.7      0.2780   0.7816  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19089.79 R-squared 0.853486 Adjusted R-squared 0.830945 F(14, 91) 37.86424 P-value(F) 8.45e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.153 Akaike criterion 2404.306 Schwarz criterion 2444.258 Hannan-Quinn 2420.499 rho 0.008986 Durbin-Watson 1.962955

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 30

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 46: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2558.27      6250.72     0.4093   0.6833  
MI             38078.1       3688.76    10.32     5.41e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8958.62     0.1241   0.9015  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8446.27     4.180    6.68e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8446.27     1.389    0.1682  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8446.27    10.13     1.36e-16 ***
DMonth_6       15104.5       9311.06     1.622    0.1082  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8958.62     2.844    0.0055   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8958.62     9.948    3.27e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8958.62    −0.6389   0.5245  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8958.62     0.2371   0.8131  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8958.62     4.080    9.63e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8958.62    12.95     2.28e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14931.0      3.200    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac    −29060.0      20300.2     −1.432    0.1557  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.25e+10 S.E. of regression 18886.43 R-squared 0.856591 Adjusted R-squared 0.834528 F(14, 91) 38.82477 P-value(F) 3.26e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.018 Akaike criterion 2402.036 Schwarz criterion 2441.987 Hannan-Quinn 2418.228 rho −0.000946 Durbin-Watson 1.980426

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 31

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 47: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2789.25      6318.98     0.4414   0.6600  
MI             37616.1       3729.05    10.09     1.68e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9056.46     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8538.51     4.135    7.89e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8538.51     1.374    0.1728  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8538.51    10.02     2.31e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9056.46     1.267    0.2085  
DMonth_7       26052.9       9412.75     2.768    0.0068   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9056.46     9.841    5.49e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9056.46    −0.6320   0.5290  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9056.46     0.2345   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9056.46     4.036    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9056.46    12.81     4.34e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15094.1      3.165    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −4575.42     20521.9     −0.2230   0.8241  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19092.68 R-squared 0.853441 Adjusted R-squared 0.830894 F(14, 91) 37.85079 P-value(F) 8.56e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.169 Akaike criterion 2404.338 Schwarz criterion 2444.290 Hannan-Quinn 2420.531 rho −0.003156 Durbin-Watson 1.985600

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 32

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 48: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2699.81      6304.40     0.4282   0.6695  
MI             37795.0       3720.44    10.16     1.19e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9035.56     0.1230   0.9024  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8518.81     4.145    7.62e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8518.81     1.377    0.1718  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8518.81    10.04     2.06e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9035.56     1.270    0.2074  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9035.56     2.820    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       90881.5       9391.03     9.677    1.21e-15 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9035.56    −0.6334   0.5280  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9035.56     0.2351   0.8147  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9035.56     4.046    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9035.56    12.84     3.79e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15059.3      3.172    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −14056.3      20474.5     −0.6865   0.4941  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19048.63 R-squared 0.854117 Adjusted R-squared 0.831673 F(14, 91) 38.05616 P-value(F) 6.97e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.924 Akaike criterion 2403.849 Schwarz criterion 2443.800 Hannan-Quinn 2420.041 rho −0.005878 Durbin-Watson 1.990699

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 33

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 49: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2678.34      6298.68     0.4252   0.6717  
MI             37838.0       3717.07    10.18     1.08e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9027.36     0.1231   0.9023  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8511.08     4.148    7.51e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8511.08     1.378    0.1715  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8511.08    10.05     1.98e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9027.36     1.271    0.2070  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9027.36     2.823    0.0058   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9027.36     9.873    4.71e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −3681.86      9382.51    −0.3924   0.6957  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9027.36     0.2353   0.8145  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9027.36     4.049    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9027.36    12.86     3.59e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15045.6      3.175    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac    −16332.5      20455.9     −0.7984   0.4267  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19031.35 R-squared 0.854381 Adjusted R-squared 0.831978 F(14, 91) 38.13710 P-value(F) 6.43e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.828 Akaike criterion 2403.656 Schwarz criterion 2443.608 Hannan-Quinn 2419.849 rho −0.007463 Durbin-Watson 1.993734

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 34

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 50: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2762.15      6316.13     0.4373   0.6629  
MI             37670.3       3727.37    10.11     1.53e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9052.37     0.1228   0.9025  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8534.66     4.137    7.84e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8534.66     1.375    0.1726  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8534.66    10.03     2.26e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9052.37     1.267    0.2083  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9052.37     2.815    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9052.37     9.845    5.37e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9052.37    −0.6323   0.5288  
DMonth_10       3055.04      9408.50     0.3247   0.7461  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9052.37     4.038    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9052.37    12.82     4.23e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15087.3      3.166    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −7448.65     20512.6     −0.3631   0.7174  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19084.08 R-squared 0.853573 Adjusted R-squared 0.831046 F(14, 91) 37.89081 P-value(F) 8.22e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.121 Akaike criterion 2404.243 Schwarz criterion 2444.194 Hannan-Quinn 2420.435 rho −0.004043 Durbin-Watson 1.987278

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 35

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 51: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2696.11      6303.48     0.4277   0.6699  
MI             37802.4       3719.90    10.16     1.17e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9034.24     0.1230   0.9024  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8517.56     4.145    7.60e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8517.56     1.377    0.1718  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8517.56    10.05     2.05e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9034.24     1.270    0.2074  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9034.24     2.820    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9034.24     9.865    4.88e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9034.24    −0.6335   0.5280  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9034.24     0.2351   0.8147  
DMonth_11      38360.3       9389.65     4.085    9.46e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         9034.24    12.85     3.76e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15057.1      3.173    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −14448.3      20471.5     −0.7058   0.4821  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19045.84 R-squared 0.854159 Adjusted R-squared 0.831722 F(14, 91) 38.06921 P-value(F) 6.88e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.909 Akaike criterion 2403.818 Schwarz criterion 2443.769 Hannan-Quinn 2420.010 rho 0.011255 Durbin-Watson 1.957075

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 36

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 52: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3129.48      6238.45     0.5016   0.6171  
MI             36935.7       3681.52    10.03     2.18e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8941.04     0.1243   0.9013  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8429.69     4.188    6.48e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8429.69     1.392    0.1674  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8429.69    10.15     1.24e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8941.04     1.283    0.2027  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8941.04     2.850    0.0054   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8941.04     9.968    2.98e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8941.04    −0.6401   0.5237  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8941.04     0.2376   0.8128  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8941.04     4.088    9.36e-05 ***
DMonth_12     112115         9292.79    12.06     1.40e-20 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14901.7      3.206    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac     31488.6      20260.3      1.554    0.1236  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.23e+10 S.E. of regression 18849.36 R-squared 0.857153 Adjusted R-squared 0.835176 F(14, 91) 39.00320 P-value(F) 2.73e-32 Log-likelihood −1185.810 Akaike criterion 2401.619 Schwarz criterion 2441.571 Hannan-Quinn 2417.812 rho 0.021666 Durbin-Watson 1.936914

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 37

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 53: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const          3561.37       6572.50     0.5419    0.5892  
MI            37681.7        3726.26    10.11      1.49e-16 ***
DMonth_2        306.635      9274.15     0.03306   0.9737  
DMonth_3      34502.5        8769.69     3.934     0.0002   ***
DMonth_4      10926.8        8769.69     1.246     0.2160  
DMonth_5      84758.8        8769.69     9.665     1.28e-15 ***
DMonth_6      10667.1        9274.15     1.150     0.2531  
DMonth_7      24676.0        9274.15     2.661     0.0092   ***
DMonth_8      88319.6        9274.15     9.523     2.54e-15 ***
DMonth_9      −6528.31       9274.15    −0.7039    0.4833  
DMonth_10      1319.07       9274.15     0.1422    0.8872  
DMonth_11     35749.4        9274.15     3.855     0.0002   ***
DMonth_12    115246          9274.15    12.43      2.60e-21 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15085.1      3.167     0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −8048.89      20219.7     −0.3981    0.6915  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19081.29 R-squared 0.853616 Adjusted R-squared 0.831095 F(14, 91) 37.90376 P-value(F) 8.12e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.106 Akaike criterion 2404.212 Schwarz criterion 2444.163 Hannan-Quinn 2420.404 rho 0.020158 Durbin-Watson 1.939743

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 38

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 54: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const           3714.18      5900.65     0.6295    0.5306  
MI             35766.3       3495.24    10.23      8.34e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8453.86     0.1315    0.8957  
DMonth_3       35307.4       7970.38     4.430     2.62e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       7970.38     1.472     0.1445  
DMonth_5       85563.7       7970.38    10.74      7.52e-18 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8453.86     1.357     0.1781  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8453.86     3.014     0.0033   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8453.86    10.54      1.89e-17 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8453.86    −0.6770    0.5001  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8453.86     0.2512    0.8022  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8453.86     4.324     3.91e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8453.86    13.73      6.83e-24 ***
quelfeb         1039.74     18984.0      0.05477   0.9564  
blitz_plac     93467.3      25445.7      3.673     0.0004   ***

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 2.89e+10 S.E. of regression 17822.31 R-squared 0.872296 Adjusted R-squared 0.852649 F(14, 91) 44.39879 P-value(F) 1.85e-34 Log-likelihood −1179.871 Akaike criterion 2389.741 Schwarz criterion 2429.693 Hannan-Quinn 2405.934 rho 0.008251 Durbin-Watson 1.961792

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 27 (quelfeb)

loop: b = 39

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 55: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2932.86      6311.00     0.4647   0.6432  
MI             37328.9       3723.83    10.02     2.27e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9045.14     0.1229   0.9025  
DMonth_3       34242.6       8763.96     3.907    0.0002   ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8527.84     1.376    0.1723  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8527.84    10.03     2.17e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9045.14     1.268    0.2079  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9045.14     2.817    0.0059   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9045.14     9.853    5.17e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9045.14    −0.6328   0.5285  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9045.14     0.2348   0.8149  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9045.14     4.041    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9045.14    12.83     4.03e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15075.2      3.169    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     10647.4      20206.5      0.5269   0.5995  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19068.83 R-squared 0.853807 Adjusted R-squared 0.831316 F(14, 91) 37.96182 P-value(F) 7.66e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.037 Akaike criterion 2404.073 Schwarz criterion 2444.025 Hannan-Quinn 2420.266 rho −0.013799 Durbin-Watson 2.006663

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 40

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 56: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2863.02      6319.73     0.4530   0.6516  
MI             37468.6       3728.98    10.05     2.03e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9057.65     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8539.63     4.135    7.91e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11407.2       8776.08     1.300    0.1969  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8539.63    10.02     2.32e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9057.65     1.267    0.2085  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9057.65     2.813    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9057.65     9.840    5.52e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9057.65    −0.6319   0.5290  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9057.65     0.2345   0.8151  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9057.65     4.036    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9057.65    12.81     4.37e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15096.1      3.165    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      3244.26     20234.4      0.1603   0.8730  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19095.20 R-squared 0.853403 Adjusted R-squared 0.830849 F(14, 91) 37.83910 P-value(F) 8.66e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.183 Akaike criterion 2404.366 Schwarz criterion 2444.318 Hannan-Quinn 2420.559 rho −0.000664 Durbin-Watson 1.980835

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 41

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 57: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3031.49      6282.75     0.4825   0.6306  
MI             37131.6       3707.15    10.02     2.36e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9004.65     0.1234   0.9020  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8489.66     4.159    7.23e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8489.66     1.382    0.1704  
DMonth_5       83453.5       8724.73     9.565    2.07e-15 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9004.65     1.274    0.2059  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9004.65     2.830    0.0057   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9004.65     9.898    4.18e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9004.65    −0.6356   0.5266  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9004.65     0.2359   0.8141  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9004.65     4.059    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9004.65    12.89     3.09e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15007.7      3.183    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac     21102.2      20116.0      1.049    0.2969  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.28e+10 S.E. of regression 18983.46 R-squared 0.855113 Adjusted R-squared 0.832823 F(14, 91) 38.36261 P-value(F) 5.14e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.561 Akaike criterion 2403.122 Schwarz criterion 2443.074 Hannan-Quinn 2419.315 rho 0.004412 Durbin-Watson 1.974656

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 42

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 58: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2763.68      6316.33     0.4375   0.6628  
MI             37667.3       3727.48    10.11     1.54e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9052.66     0.1228   0.9025  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8534.93     4.137    7.84e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8534.93     1.375    0.1726  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8534.93    10.03     2.26e-16 ***
DMonth_6       12382.7       9408.80     1.316    0.1915  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9052.66     2.815    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9052.66     9.845    5.38e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9052.66    −0.6322   0.5288  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9052.66     0.2346   0.8150  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9052.66     4.038    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9052.66    12.82     4.23e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15087.8      3.166    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −7285.69     20513.3     −0.3552   0.7233  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.31e+10 S.E. of regression 19084.67 R-squared 0.853564 Adjusted R-squared 0.831036 F(14, 91) 37.88802 P-value(F) 8.25e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.125 Akaike criterion 2404.249 Schwarz criterion 2444.201 Hannan-Quinn 2420.442 rho 0.002552 Durbin-Watson 1.974342

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 43

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 59: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2694.40      6303.04     0.4275   0.6700  
MI             37805.8       3719.64    10.16     1.16e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9033.61     0.1230   0.9023  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8516.97     4.146    7.59e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8516.97     1.377    0.1718  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8516.97    10.05     2.04e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9033.61     1.270    0.2074  
DMonth_7       27309.7       9389.00     2.909    0.0046   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9033.61     9.866    4.87e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9033.61    −0.6336   0.5280  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9033.61     0.2351   0.8146  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9033.61     4.046    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9033.61    12.85     3.74e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15056.0      3.173    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −14629.9      20470.1     −0.7147   0.4766  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.30e+10 S.E. of regression 19044.52 R-squared 0.854180 Adjusted R-squared 0.831746 F(14, 91) 38.07539 P-value(F) 6.84e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.901 Akaike criterion 2403.803 Schwarz criterion 2443.755 Hannan-Quinn 2419.996 rho −0.016867 Durbin-Watson 2.012237

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 44

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 60: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2446.91      6181.55     0.3958   0.6931  
MI             38300.8       3647.95    10.50     2.32e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8859.49     0.1255   0.9004  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8352.81     4.227    5.62e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8352.81     1.405    0.1636  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8352.81    10.24     7.91e-17 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8859.49     1.295    0.1986  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8859.49     2.876    0.0050   ***
DMonth_8       94232.4       9208.03    10.23     8.30e-17 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8859.49    −0.6460   0.5199  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8859.49     0.2397   0.8111  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8859.49     4.126    8.16e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8859.49    13.10     1.18e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14765.8      3.235    0.0017   ***
blitz_plac    −40863.3      20075.5     −2.035    0.0447   **

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.17e+10 S.E. of regression 18677.44 R-squared 0.859747 Adjusted R-squared 0.838169 F(14, 91) 39.84474 P-value(F) 1.21e-32 Log-likelihood −1184.838 Akaike criterion 2399.677 Schwarz criterion 2439.628 Hannan-Quinn 2415.869 rho −0.040436 Durbin-Watson 2.057134

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 45

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 61: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2623.45      6280.14     0.4177   0.6771  
MI             37947.7       3706.13    10.24     8.09e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9000.79     0.1235   0.9020  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8486.02     4.161    7.18e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8486.02     1.382    0.1702  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8486.02    10.08     1.71e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9000.79     1.275    0.2057  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9000.79     2.831    0.0057   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9000.79     9.902    4.09e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −2954.65      9354.89    −0.3158   0.7528  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9000.79     0.2360   0.8140  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9000.79     4.061    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9000.79    12.89     3.02e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15001.3      3.185    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac    −22150.2      20395.7     −1.086    0.2803  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.28e+10 S.E. of regression 18975.32 R-squared 0.855237 Adjusted R-squared 0.832966 F(14, 91) 38.40109 P-value(F) 4.95e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.516 Akaike criterion 2403.031 Schwarz criterion 2442.983 Hannan-Quinn 2419.224 rho −0.025582 Durbin-Watson 2.029054

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 46

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 62: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2784.34      6318.56     0.4407   0.6605  
MI             37626.0       3728.80    10.09     1.65e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9055.86     0.1227   0.9026  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8537.95     4.135    7.88e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8537.95     1.374    0.1728  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8537.95    10.02     2.30e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9055.86     1.267    0.2085  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9055.86     2.814    0.0060   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9055.86     9.842    5.47e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9055.86    −0.6320   0.5290  
DMonth_10       2760.99      9412.13     0.2933   0.7699  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9055.86     4.037    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9055.86    12.82     4.32e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15093.1      3.165    0.0021   ***
blitz_plac     −5096.25     20520.5     −0.2483   0.8044  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19091.43 R-squared 0.853460 Adjusted R-squared 0.830916 F(14, 91) 37.85662 P-value(F) 8.51e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.162 Akaike criterion 2404.324 Schwarz criterion 2444.276 Hannan-Quinn 2420.517 rho −0.005234 Durbin-Watson 1.989667

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 47

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 63: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2531.99      6236.56     0.4060   0.6857  
MI             38130.7       3680.41    10.36     4.52e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8938.33     0.1244   0.9013  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8427.14     4.190    6.45e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8427.14     1.392    0.1673  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8427.14    10.15     1.22e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8938.33     1.283    0.2026  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8938.33     2.851    0.0054   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8938.33     9.971    2.93e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8938.33    −0.6403   0.5236  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8938.33     0.2376   0.8127  
DMonth_11      40535.0       9289.97     4.363    3.37e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8938.33    12.98     2.00e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14897.2      3.207    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac    −31845.8      20254.2     −1.572    0.1194  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.23e+10 S.E. of regression 18843.65 R-squared 0.857239 Adjusted R-squared 0.835276 F(14, 91) 39.03077 P-value(F) 2.66e-32 Log-likelihood −1185.778 Akaike criterion 2401.555 Schwarz criterion 2441.507 Hannan-Quinn 2417.748 rho 0.032115 Durbin-Watson 1.915464

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 48

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 64: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           3210.96      6186.59     0.5190   0.6050  
MI             36772.7       3650.92    10.07     1.80e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8866.71     0.1254   0.9005  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8359.61     4.224    5.69e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8359.61     1.403    0.1639  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8359.61    10.24     8.24e-17 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8866.71     1.294    0.1990  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8866.71     2.874    0.0050   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8866.71    10.05     1.99e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8866.71    −0.6455   0.5202  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8866.71     0.2395   0.8112  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8866.71     4.123    8.26e-05 ***
DMonth_12     111035         9215.53    12.05     1.51e-20 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14777.8      3.233    0.0017   ***
blitz_plac     40125.1      20091.9      1.997    0.0488   **

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.18e+10 S.E. of regression 18692.66 R-squared 0.859518 Adjusted R-squared 0.837906 F(14, 91) 39.76931 P-value(F) 1.30e-32 Log-likelihood −1184.925 Akaike criterion 2399.849 Schwarz criterion 2439.801 Hannan-Quinn 2416.042 rho 0.039092 Durbin-Watson 1.902529

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 49

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 65: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const          2956.92       6578.06     0.4495    0.6541  
MI            37555.7        3729.41    10.07      1.82e-16 ***
DMonth_2        974.052      9281.99     0.1049    0.9167  
DMonth_3      35169.9        8777.10     4.007     0.0001   ***
DMonth_4      11594.2        8777.10     1.321     0.1898  
DMonth_5      85426.2        8777.10     9.733     9.24e-16 ***
DMonth_6      11334.5        9281.99     1.221     0.2252  
DMonth_7      25343.5        9281.99     2.730     0.0076   ***
DMonth_8      88987.0        9281.99     9.587     1.86e-15 ***
DMonth_9      −5860.90       9281.99    −0.6314    0.5293  
DMonth_10      1986.49       9281.99     0.2140    0.8310  
DMonth_11     36416.8        9281.99     3.923     0.0002   ***
DMonth_12    115913          9281.99    12.49      1.95e-21 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15097.8      3.164     0.0021   ***
blitz_plac    −1374.73      20236.8     −0.06793   0.9460  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19097.41 R-squared 0.853369 Adjusted R-squared 0.830810 F(14, 91) 37.82883 P-value(F) 8.75e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.195 Akaike criterion 2404.391 Schwarz criterion 2444.342 Hannan-Quinn 2420.583 rho 0.003666 Durbin-Watson 1.972272

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 50

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 66: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio    p-value 
-----------------------------------------------------------
const          2852.94       6320.32     0.4514    0.6528  
MI            37488.7        3729.84    10.05      2.00e-16 ***
DMonth_2        839.540      9414.74     0.08917   0.9291  
DMonth_3      35307.4        8540.31     4.134     7.92e-05 ***
DMonth_4      11731.7        8540.31     1.374     0.1729  
DMonth_5      85563.7        8540.31    10.02      2.33e-16 ***
DMonth_6      11472.0        9058.37     1.266     0.2086  
DMonth_7      25480.9        9058.37     2.813     0.0060   ***
DMonth_8      89124.5        9058.37     9.839     5.54e-16 ***
DMonth_9      −5723.43       9058.37    −0.6318    0.5291  
DMonth_10      2123.96       9058.37     0.2345    0.8151  
DMonth_11     36554.2        9058.37     4.035     0.0001   ***
DMonth_12    116051          9058.37    12.81      4.39e-22 ***
quelfeb       48045.3       15313.8      3.137     0.0023   ***
blitz_plac     2175.88      20526.2      0.1060    0.9158  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19096.72 R-squared 0.853379 Adjusted R-squared 0.830822 F(14, 91) 37.83205 P-value(F) 8.72e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.192 Akaike criterion 2404.383 Schwarz criterion 2444.335 Hannan-Quinn 2420.576 rho 0.003147 Durbin-Watson 1.973342

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 51

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 67: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2674.24      6296.74     0.4247   0.6721  
MI             37846.2       3715.41    10.19     1.04e-16 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      9024.70     0.1232   0.9022  
DMonth_3       36984.1       8744.16     4.230    5.57e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8508.56     1.379    0.1713  
DMonth_5       85563.7       8508.56    10.06     1.95e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       9024.70     1.271    0.2069  
DMonth_7       25480.9       9024.70     2.823    0.0058   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       9024.70     9.876    4.64e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      9024.70    −0.6342   0.5275  
DMonth_10       2123.96      9024.70     0.2353   0.8145  
DMonth_11      36554.2       9024.70     4.050    0.0001   ***
DMonth_12     116051         9024.70    12.86     3.53e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      15041.2      3.176    0.0020   ***
blitz_plac    −16767.1      20160.8     −0.8317   0.4078  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.29e+10 S.E. of regression 19025.73 R-squared 0.854467 Adjusted R-squared 0.832078 F(14, 91) 38.16349 P-value(F) 6.26e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.797 Akaike criterion 2403.594 Schwarz criterion 2443.545 Hannan-Quinn 2419.786 rho 0.002981 Durbin-Watson 1.973228

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

loop: b = 52

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 68: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error    t-ratio    p-value 
------------------------------------------------------------
const          2833.81       6320.62     0.4483     0.6550  
MI            37527.0        3729.50    10.06       1.89e-16 ***
DMonth_2       1111.52       9058.93     0.1227     0.9026  
DMonth_3      35307.4        8540.84     4.134      7.92e-05 ***
DMonth_4      11716.8        8777.32     1.335      0.1852  
DMonth_5      85563.7        8540.84    10.02       2.34e-16 ***
DMonth_6      11472.0        9058.93     1.266      0.2086  
DMonth_7      25480.9        9058.93     2.813      0.0060   ***
DMonth_8      89124.5        9058.93     9.838      5.56e-16 ***
DMonth_9      −5723.43       9058.93    −0.6318     0.5291  
DMonth_10      2123.96       9058.93     0.2345     0.8152  
DMonth_11     36554.2        9058.93     4.035      0.0001   ***
DMonth_12    116051          9058.93    12.81       4.41e-22 ***
quelfeb       47773.4       15098.2      3.164      0.0021   ***
blitz_plac      148.114     20237.3      0.007319   0.9942  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.32e+10 S.E. of regression 19097.89 R-squared 0.853361 Adjusted R-squared 0.830801 F(14, 91) 37.82660 P-value(F) 8.77e-32 Log-likelihood −1187.198 Akaike criterion 2404.396 Schwarz criterion 2444.348 Hannan-Quinn 2420.589 rho 0.002308 Durbin-Watson 1.974960

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 49 (blitz_plac)

loop: b = 53

? blitz_plac = const - const ? smpl MI –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 53 observations ? blitz_plac = (time == b) ? smpl Cit != 2 –replace –restrict Full data set: 212 observations Current sample: 1:01 - 3:53 (n = 159)

? ols deb_risc const MI GE DMonth_2 DMonth_3 DMonth_4 DMonth_5 DMonth_6 \

DMonth_7 DMonth_8 DMonth_9 DMonth_10 DMonth_11 DMonth_12 quelfeb \
blitz_plac

Model 69: Pooled OLS, using 106 observations Included 2 cross-sectional units Time-series length = 53 Dependent variable: deb_risc

             coefficient   std. error   t-ratio   p-value 
----------------------------------------------------------
const           2580.06      6259.65     0.4122   0.6812  
MI             38034.5       3693.53    10.30     6.11e-17 ***
DMonth_2        1111.52      8971.54     0.1239   0.9017  
DMonth_3       35307.4       8458.45     4.174    6.83e-05 ***
DMonth_4       11731.7       8458.45     1.387    0.1688  
DMonth_5       88238.7       8692.65    10.15     1.24e-16 ***
DMonth_6       11472.0       8971.54     1.279    0.2043  
DMonth_7       25480.9       8971.54     2.840    0.0056   ***
DMonth_8       89124.5       8971.54     9.934    3.50e-16 ***
DMonth_9       −5723.43      8971.54    −0.6380   0.5251  
DMonth_10       2123.96      8971.54     0.2367   0.8134  
DMonth_11      36554.2       8971.54     4.074    9.84e-05 ***
DMonth_12     116051         8971.54    12.94     2.49e-22 ***
quelfeb        47773.4      14952.6      3.195    0.0019   ***
blitz_plac    −26749.9      20042.1     −1.335    0.1853  

Mean dependent var 55874.23 S.D. dependent var 46428.75 Sum squared resid 3.26e+10 S.E. of regression 18913.67 R-squared 0.856177 Adjusted R-squared 0.834050 F(14, 91) 38.69430 P-value(F) 3.70e-32 Log-likelihood −1186.171 Akaike criterion 2402.341 Schwarz criterion 2442.293 Hannan-Quinn 2418.534 rho 0.002038 Durbin-Watson 1.990962

Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 28 (DMonth_2)

Number of iterations: 53

blitz.1373232001.txt.gz · Ultima modifica: 2013/07/07 23:20 da pietro